Capture of Maduro and Rising Eurasian Conflicts
Analyst Insight
U.S. special-operations forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, triggering retaliatory deployments by Colombia and assassination threats from the Cartel of the Suns.
Simultaneously, Russia and China escalated military operations in Ukraine and the Indo‑Pacific while extremist attacks hit Nigeria, Berlin and Switzerland.
These developments point to a widening pattern of targeted violence, infrastructure disruption, and state-level confrontation.
The practical takeaway is simple: pay attention to where tensions are rising, reduce reliance on fragile systems, and maintain plans for short-notice disruptions such as localized unrest, utility outages, or interruptions in food and fuel availability.
Domestic Security and Civil Unrest
Foiled ISIS‑inspired New Year’s Eve attack in North Carolina - An FBI/JTTF operation arrested 18‑year‑old Christian Sturdivant, who had planned to use knives and hammers to kill random shoppers at a grocery store and fast‑food restaurant on New Year’s Eve. Investigators found a manifesto pledging allegiance to ISIS and recovered weapons and gear from his home; Sturdivant had been under surveillance since 2022.
Posture: Self‑radicalization and online recruitment remain potent; holiday gatherings are attractive targets for lone‑actor attacks.
Preparedness: Maintain situational awareness in crowded places and report suspicious behavior.
Attempted break‑in at Vice‑President J.D. Vance’s residence - A man smashed windows and tried to enter Vance’s Ohio home before Secret Service agents detained him. Though no shots were fired, the episode shows growing threats against public officials and the need for improved residential security.
Preparedness: Homeowners should strengthen physical barriers, install alarms and train for shelter‑in‑place scenarios.
Violence at pro‑Maduro rally in Switzerland - Left‑wing demonstrators attacked a Venezuelan refugee during a pro‑Maduro protest. The ideological clash illustrates how overseas rallies can spill into targeted violence and foreshadows tension around diaspora communities.
Cartel assassination threats - During U.S. court proceedings, the Cartel of the Suns reportedly issued credible threats against detained President Maduro. The threat environment could extend to U.S. soil if cartel operatives retaliate.
Infrastructure and Grid Alerts
Berlin power sabotage - Left‑wing extremist group Vulkangruppe claimed responsibility for an arson attack on high‑voltage cables in Berlin, leaving up to 45,000 households and 2,200 businesses without power for days. Minimal expertise was required to cut cables, demonstrating how accessible infrastructure sabotage has become.
Preparedness: Have backup power sources and contingency plans for prolonged outages.
Greek airspace shutdown - Greece lost aviation radio frequencies on 4 Jan, grounding all flights and stranding travelers until backup systems restored. Authorities have not ruled out cyber sabotage.
Preparedness: Travelers should build buffer time into itineraries and carry essentials for unexpected delays.
Train derailment and chemical leak in Kentucky - A 31‑car derailment in Todd County spilled molten sulfur, a flammable and toxic chemical, prompting shelter‑in‑place orderswsmv.com.
Preparedness: Stay informed on local hazardous material routes and keep N95 masks and evacuation kits.
Chinese cyber campaigns targeting Taiwan - Taiwan recorded 2.63 million daily cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in 2025, a 6 % increase from 2024. The campaigns target power, transportation and telecommunications systems.
Preparedness: Individuals and organizations should harden digital hygiene, enable multi‑factor authentication, and maintain offline backups.
Extreme Weather and Natural Hazards
Winter storm impacts - The U.S. National Weather Service warns of snow and ice across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through early next week, with hazardous travel conditions. Heavy rain and mountain snow also threaten the West Coast.
Preparedness: Travelers should monitor local advisories, stock warm clothing and keep vehicle emergency kits.
Potential for cascading failures - Severe weather coupled with infrastructure attacks (Berlin, Kentucky) may amplify supply‑chain disruptions. Backup power and water supplies are essential as storms can limit response times.
Border and Immigration
Colombia militarizes Venezuelan border - In response to the U.S. operation capturing Maduro, Colombia deployed troops and armored vehicles along its eastern border and activated all security forces to protect residents and assets. The move signals fear of refugee flows and cross‑border raids.
Preparedness: Travelers near border regions should avoid crossing points and monitor official advisories.
Church, Mission, and Civilian Safety
Iranian protests turn deadly - Amid widespread demonstrations over economic conditions, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps member was killed while defending a police station in Malekshahi and at least 12people have been killed nationwide. Escalating unrest increases risks for missionaries and aid workers.
Preparedness: Mission teams should review evacuation plans and communication protocols.
Nigeria - jihadist violence in the Sahel - A JNIM raid near Torodi, Niger (Niger State), killed seven people including a governor, signaling cross‑border jihadist attacks. Separately, an ISWAP IED destroyed a Nigerian army vehicle, killing eight soldiers. Such attacks demonstrate persistent insurgent capabilities.
Nigeria - market massacre - Gunmen raided the Kasuwan Daji market, killing at least 30 villagers and abducting others. The scale suggests rising communal violence and weakened security.
Preparedness: Avoid large markets in conflict zones, and maintain contact with embassies.
International Flashpoints
Capture of President Maduro - U.S. assets stormed a safe house in Caracas, seizing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The assault, rehearsed in a replica building, involved heavy gunfire and reportedly killed many Cuban security personnel. Cuba later said 32 of its citizens died defending Maduro. The operation marks a dramatic escalation in U.S. intervention and could spur cartel or state retaliation.
Russia’s mass drone and missile barrage - Russia launched 165 drones and nine missiles at multiple Ukrainian cities, killing at least two people and injuring several others. The attack followed increased Ukrainian cross‑border strikes and may provoke NATO tensions.
Preparedness: European residents should prepare for potential power disruptions and shelter plans.
Ukrainian drone strike on Russian military plant - A Ukrainian drone ignited a fire at the Energia plant in Yelets, Russia, which produces batteries for Iskander missiles and drones. Russia may retaliate; the strike reveals Ukraine’s deep‑strike capability.
False Russian claim of attack on Putin’s residence - Moscow alleged Ukraine targeted the Russian president’s residence with 91 drones, but provided no evidence; Ukraine dismissed the claim as propaganda. This narrative could be used to justify further aggression.
Serbia doubles military capacity - Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced plans to double armaments and boost personnel by 30 %, warning of a potential military alliance between Kosovo (Pristina), Albania (Tirana) and Croatia (Zagreb). The buildup hints at a Balkan arms race and heightened ethnic tensions.
Chinese expansion and drills - Satellite imagery shows China continuing land reclamation and militarization in the Paracel Islands, following a broader pattern of building artificial islands and deploying missile systems across the South China Sea. On 30 Dec, China fired rockets near Taiwan during large‑scale drills, launching at least ten missiles from Pingtan island as part of “Justice Mission 2025”, while simultaneously conducting millions of cyber intrusions against Taiwanese infrastructure. These activities raise the risk of miscalculation leading to armed confrontation.
Cartel threats and Venezuelan unrest - Following the U.S. raid, reports of cartel threats against Maduro and pro‑Maduro protests turning violent abroad suggest fragmentation within Venezuelan support networks and potential spill‑over violence.
Supply Chain and Liberty Watch
Power and transportation stressors - The Berlin cable sabotage and Greek airspace shutdown expose how small groups or technical failures can paralyze modern grids and transport networks. Prepared individuals should diversify energy sources, store essential supplies and plan alternative routes.
Chemical and cyber threats to supply chains - The Kentucky derailment highlighted vulnerabilities in hazardous materials transport; widespread cyber‑intrusions in Taiwan demonstrate how digital attacks can disrupt logistics and communications. Routine auditing of digital and physical supply chains is critical.
Signals to Monitor
Continued cartel or militant actions in response to Maduro’s capture, including threats against U.S. officials or infrastructure.
Escalation of Russian drone/missile operations or Ukrainian counter‑strikes, particularly near NATO borders.
Additional left‑wing or eco‑extremist sabotage attempts on power or communication infrastructure in Europe and the U.S.
Signs of coordinated Chinese military posturing near Taiwan or further land reclamation in the South China Sea.
Intensification of jihadist or communal violence in Nigeria and Niger targeting markets, governors or aid workers.
Red Flags
Sudden spikes in cyber probing of local utilities or unusual radio interference similar to the Greek aviation disruption.
Large‑scale troop movements on the Colombia-Venezuela or Serbia-Kosovo borders.
Orders for mandatory evacuations near chemical facilities or railway corridors.
Calls for retaliatory violence by extremist groups on social media after high‑profile arrests or strikes.
Preparedness Action Items
Review and practice shelter‑in‑place and evacuation plans for both home and workplace; ensure you have a 72‑hour supply of water, food and medications.
Equip your home with backup power solutions (solar chargers, power banks) and test generators; keep flashlights and battery‑powered radios ready.
Update digital security: employ strong passwords, enable multi‑factor authentication and back up critical data offline.
Monitor local weather advisories and avoid non‑essential travel during severe winter conditions; outfit vehicles with emergency kits and traction aids.
For those traveling or living abroad, register with consular services, avoid protest areas, and maintain communication with trusted contacts.
Preparedness Focus of the Day
Safeguarding Against Infrastructure Sabotage - Recent attacks on power grids, aviation communications and rail lines highlight the fragility of interconnected systems. Individuals should map critical services in their locality (electric substations, chemical plants, transportation hubs) and plan alternative routes or contingencies should those nodes fail. Encourage Mutual Assistance/Aid Groups and report suspicious activity near infrastructure.
Solid synthesis of how local and international instability vectors are converging right now. The Berlin grid sabotage point is underrated, low barrier to entry for infrastructure disruption means civil unrest doesn't have to scale into mass mobilization to cause cascading effects. I've been tracking similar patterns with cyber intrusions against utlities and the threshold for meaningful damage keeps dropping. The Colombia border militarization in response to Maduro's capture also shows how intervention in one theatr immediately ripples into refugee flows and cross-border security postures elsewhere.
What a mighty military