Escalating Thailand-Cambodia conflict; U.S.–Venezuela standoff
Analyst Insight
Border conflicts, drone warfare, and energy-sector disruptions are driving risk. The Thailand-Cambodia border clash is escalating toward full-scale war with heavy artillery, rocket salvos, and mass displacement, eroding post-2022 norms.
U.S.-Venezuela tensions are rising after American forces seized the largest sanctioned oil tanker and U.S. warplanes entered Venezuelan airspace.
Rebels captured oil fields in Sudan and advanced on Uvira, while new drone tactics targeted Russian and Sudanese assets, and X experienced global outages, exposing infrastructure vulnerabilities.
Severe weather in Wisconsin and rising civil unrest highlight domestic preparedness needs.
Domestic Security and Civil Unrest
• Border operations leak sparks riot: A leaked ICE raid in Elgin, Illinois, led to a crowd forming before agents arrived and a subsequent riot, highlighting operational security gaps and the potential for targeted violence.
• U.S. civil unrest abroad: Haitian gangs used night‑vision gear and rifles in a coordinated attack on Port‑au‑Prince police, illustrating organized violence and an escalation in tactics against authorities.
• Iranian labor protests: Thousands of workers at the Asaluyeh gas complex demonstrated against corruption, a large‑scale protest at a critical energy site that could disrupt operations.
Infrastructure and Grid Alerts
• Digital platform outage: An international outage linked to a Cloudflare configuration error disrupted X and other services, demonstrating the vulnerability of globally interconnected digital infrastructure.
• Russian infrastructure disruptions: Drone strikes and explosions in Russia’s Bryansk, Oryol, Voronezh, and Belgorod regions caused power and water outages and hinted at deeper incursions and sabotage efforts aimed at stressing rear‑area infrastructure.
• Market fires in St Petersburg: Two separate reports of large fires at a St Petersburg market suggest possible sabotage; the distance from the front lines highlights Russia’s vulnerability to attacks deep inside its territory.
Extreme Weather and Natural Hazards
• Winter storm: A fast‑moving snowstorm in Wisconsin produced up to 7.5 inches of snow, overwhelmed plows, and created slick roads, posing transportation and supply‑chain risks through the weekend.
Border and Immigration
• Airspace incursions and mobilization: U.S. Navy Growler electronic‑warfare jets deployed to Puerto Rico and U.S. Hornets breached Venezuelan airspace, indicating preparedness for potential conflict and increased risk of miscalculation. ICE operations inside the U.S. are under scrutiny after the Elgin raid leak.
• Regional border closures: Burundi closed its border with DR Congo after M23 advances, a policy change restricting mobility and commerce that could isolate communities and strain regional aid efforts.
International Flashpoints
• Thailand-Cambodia escalation: Artillery duels, rocket strikes from residential areas, and Thai Stryker offensives displaced hundreds of thousands; Cambodia’s deployment of PHL‑03 rockets and Thailand’s use of MANPADS and tanks signal a breakdown of past border norms. Near‑war conditions and rapid troop movements suggest further escalation.
• Sudan civil war: Sudanese Army drones struck an RSF gathering, killing tribal leaders after the RSF captured the strategic Heglig oil fields. The RSF’s control of Heglig shifts the military and energy balance and could prolong the conflict.
• Great Lakes conflict: Rwanda‑backed M23 rebels advanced toward and later captured Uvira, displacing roughly 200,000 people and killing at least 74. Neighboring countries responded by closing borders and preparing for spillover, highlighting regional instability.
• African insurgencies: Nigerian soldiers opened fire on Lamurde protesters, killing nine and injuring ten, exacerbating protest‑related tensions. Pakistan’s TTP ambushed a military convoy in South Waziristan, continuing an insurgency pattern.
• Ukrainian offensives: Ukraine used large drone swarms to strike Russia’s rear areas and deployed “Sea Baby” maritime drones to hit a Russian tanker, demonstrating new tactics and indicating a campaign to degrade Russian logistics. Russia’s IL‑76 crash in Sudan remains unexplained and did not trigger broader impacts.
• Other flashpoints: Russian forces pushed into Pokrovsk using quad bikes and reserves, while a reported sabotage threat from Transnistria hinted at efforts to open another front. Myanmar’s resistance fighters ambushed junta forces and burned houses in Taungtha, using rare tactics in an ongoing civil war. Thai and Cambodian troops engaged in near‑war conditions with heavy weapons.
Supply Chain and Liberty Watch
• Oil and fuel risks: U.S. forces seized a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker in international waters, and Ukrainian drones struck another Russian tanker, while the RSF captured Sudan’s Heglig oil field. These actions threaten to constrain global oil flows. Iranian worker protests at a gas complex and Haiti’s attacks on police further highlight energy‑sector vulnerabilities.
• Transportation stress: The Wisconsin snowstorm is likely to disrupt trucking and local supply chains. X’s outage disrupted communication flows, illustrating how digital faults can cascade across logistics networks.
Signals to Monitor
Escalation indicators: Observation of Thai or Cambodian mobilization beyond border provinces, evidence of proxy backing, or the introduction of longer‑range missiles.
U.S.–Venezuela standoff: Additional U.S. naval deployments, Venezuelan reprisals, or international legal actions following the tanker seizure.
DR Congo spread: Regional forces massing near borders, humanitarian corridors being established or closed, and cross‑border refugee flows.
Emerging drone tactics: Increases in drone swarm usage or maritime drone attacks that could be replicated by non‑state actors, and changes in Russian or Sudanese air defenses.
Red Flags
Artillery or rocket attacks on civilian areas escalating into major population centers.
Verified strikes on energy infrastructure or tankers that significantly reduce output or trigger sanctions responses.
Mass protests at critical infrastructure sites leading to violent crackdowns.
Severe winter storms forecasted in the next 72 hours threatening power grids or logistics corridors.
Preparedness Action Items
Travel and mission planning: Avoid non‑essential travel near the Thailand–Cambodia border, DR Congo’s eastern provinces, and Venezuelan coastal waters. Monitor embassy advisories and prepare evacuation contingencies.
Operational security: Law enforcement and aid groups should review OPSEC procedures to prevent leaks, especially before raids or humanitarian missions.
Supply readiness: Stock fuel, food, and medical supplies ahead of expected storms or supply disruptions. Organizations reliant on digital platforms should have redundant communication systems in place.
Community awareness: Schools and universities should review emergency response plans for violent incidents and coordinate with local authorities.
Preparedness Focus of the Day
Energy Sector Resilience – With oil tankers seized and oil fields contested, organizations should assess their dependence on single sources of fuel. Identify alternative suppliers and ensure backup fuel storage is maintained. Conduct tabletop exercises for fuel rationing and discuss contingency plans with partners.