Prepared Brief: Chicago National Guard protest escalates, hacktivists breach decoy water plant
October 10 2025 | 08:30 CDT
Analyst Insight
Today’s posture is strained. Protesters in Chicago are contesting an escalated immigration crackdown by federal forces, and a federal judge has temporarily blocked Texas’s attempt to deploy National Guard troops to Illinois.
Meanwhile, a pro‑Russian hacktivist group pivoted from simple denial‑of‑service attacks to compromising a decoy water‑treatment plant, illustrating the increasing sophistication of cyber threats.
Rising trade tariffs are already slowing U.S. container imports, hinting at supply‑chain constriction into the holiday season.
These overlapping domestic and global stressors warrant heightened vigilance and resource planning.
Domestic Security & Civil Unrest
Chicago immigration protest and National Guard deployment – Chicago, IL: Hundreds marched in downtown Chicago to protest President Trump’s deployment of Texas National Guard troops to assist federal immigration raids. The protests came after the fatal ICE shooting of Silverio Villegas Gonzalez; demonstrators chanted “Todos somos Silverio” and demanded an end to the raids. A judge temporarily blocked the deployment until Oct 23, criticising DHS narratives.
Why it matters: continued protests, helicopter patrols, and tension in Hispanic and Black neighbourhoods have stretched local law‑enforcement resources and could trigger curfews if clashes intensify.
Federal legal challenge to National Guard deployment – Illinois: Governor Greg Abbott’s decision to send Texas National Guard troops to support ICE operations in Illinois faces legal pushback; a federal judge said the troops will remain federalized under U.S. Northern Command while the case proceeds.
Why it matters: the judicial intervention introduces uncertainty into border‑enforcement operations and could embolden similar legal challenges in other states.
Belgium foils terror plot targeting politicians – Antwerp, Belgium: Belgian authorities arrested two men suspected of plotting attacks on Belgian politicians, including the prime minister; a drone may have been intended as a weapon. Officials warned that Islamic State supporters and drug gangs continue to pose terrorism threats.
Why it matters: the plot demonstrates transnational extremist capabilities and the need for vigilance around public events and diplomatic facilities.
Infrastructure & Grid Alerts
Hacktivists compromise decoy water‑treatment plant – Cyber: Forescout researchers reported that a pro‑Russian hacktivist group known as TwoNet breached a fake water‑treatment plant set up as a honeypot. The attackers gained access using default credentials, created a new user, and exploited a cross‑site‑scripting vulnerability to display a “Hacked by Barlati” message. They disabled logs and altered programmable‑logic‑controller setpoints.
Why it matters: although the facility was a decoy, the attack shows that hacktivists are moving from simple DDoS campaigns to operational technology (OT) systems, highlighting the need for utilities to strengthen authentication, network segmentation, and intrusion detection.
Public Safety Power Shutoff in California – Western U.S.: AT&T warned customers of a Public Safety Power Shutoff across Inyo, Kern, Los Angeles, Mono, San Bernardino, Tuolumne, and Ventura counties from Oct 8, due to wildfire risks. Restoration times are uncertain.
Why it matters: prolonged outages could disrupt communications and hamper emergency response; residents should prepare for limited cell and internet service and ensure backup power for medical devices.
Extreme Weather & Natural Hazards
Weak La Niña forms: NOAA announced that La Niña conditions have returned but remain weak and may dissipate quickly. Scientists say that while La Niña often intensifies Atlantic hurricanes and brings snowier, wetter winters to northern U.S. states, this episode may not strongly influence weather due to its short duration.
Why it matters: emergency managers should watch for potentially enhanced winter storms in northern regions but recognize the uncertainty in forecasts.
Tropical Storm Jerry in the northeastern Caribbean: Tropical Storm Jerry produced 40–60 mph gusts, 1–2 inches of rain with local totals up to 6 inches, and rough seas. The system is forecast to turn north over the Atlantic and could become a hurricane before affecting the Azores.
Why it matters: localized flash flooding and power outages are possible on Caribbean islands; travelers and mariners should monitor updates.
Border & Immigration
Immigration raids and legal pushback – Chicago, IL: Federal immigration agents have arrested more than 1,000 people in the Chicago area as part of “Operation Midway Blitz,” but local leaders say U.S. citizens and children were caught up in raids, and protests have turned confrontational. The legal injunction against Texas National Guard deployment delays additional enforcement.
Why it matters: travelers may face delays at processing centers; community tensions could trigger further protests in nearby cities.
No other significant border interdictions reported: No major smuggling interdictions, cartel arrests, or large-scale human trafficking operations were publicly announced in the past 24 hours.
Why it matters: routine border crossings and travel should proceed without unusual disruption.
Church, Mission & Civilian Safety
No global incidents affecting missionaries or church teams: There were no verified reports of attacks, kidnappings, or harassment of faith‑based workers or U.S. civilians abroad in the past 24 hours.
Why it matters: church missions and humanitarian teams can continue operations with standard security precautions.
International Flashpoints
Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant regains external power – Ukraine: The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that efforts to restore external power to the Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant have begun after more than two weeks without grid connection. The plant had been relying on emergency diesel generators; IAEA monitors heard several explosions near the site.
Why it matters: while the plant is decommissioned, prolonged loss of power poses nuclear‑safety risks; renewed power reduces immediate risk, but continued shelling could reverse progress.
Global supply chain tension due to U.S. tariffs: U.S. container imports fell 8.4% in September, with shipments from China dropping nearly 23%, as companies front‑loaded deliveries ahead of new tariffs. Tariffs on furniture and cabinetry are set to take effect next week, with another increase on imports from China scheduled for Nov. 10, unless negotiations change course.
Why it matters: declining import volumes and tariff volatility may cause shortages of consumer goods and price increases during the holiday season.
Supply Chain & Liberty Watch
Supply Chain: The National Retail Federation expects monthly import volume at U.S. ports to fall below 2 million TEUs through year‑end, reflecting tariffs and early ordering. Imports from China have tumbled, while volumes from Southeast Asia have increased.
Why it matters: retailers could experience uneven inventory levels; consumers may encounter higher prices and longer lead times for appliances, electronics, and furniture.
Liberty & Policy: Publix grocery stores began allowing customers to openly carry firearms in Florida after a state appellate court struck down Florida’s open‑carry ban. Publix said it will call law enforcement if a customer’s behavior appears threatening.
Why it matters: open carry expands to 47 states, prompting debates over personal rights.
Signals to Monitor
Escalating protests in Chicago – Watch for additional marches, potential road closures, or announcements of curfews as the court hearing on Oct 23 approaches.
Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure – Monitor advisories from CISA and utility providers; attempted intrusions on water and power facilities may intensify.
Tariff negotiations – Look for White House or congressional statements that could delay or alter scheduled tariff increases, which would affect import volumes and consumer prices.
Tropical systems in the Atlantic – Track forecasts for Tropical Storm Jerry and any subsequent systems, as La Niña may still enhance late‑season hurricanes.
Red Flags
If protests block major highways or government buildings – anticipate rapid deployment of law‑enforcement and National Guard units; avoid the area and prepare for public transit delays.
If hacktivists move from decoy systems to real operational networks – utilities may issue emergency alerts; residents should have backup water and power plans.
If Zaporizhzhia plant loses external power again amid fighting – potential radiation concerns could trigger international evacuations; monitor IAEA alerts.
If additional tariffs are announced or existing ones escalated – expect immediate market reactions and possible panic buying of affected goods.
Preparedness Action Items
Review protest‑contingency plans today – For those in the Chicago area, identify alternate routes and stock essential supplies in case of sudden road closures or curfews.
Update cyber hygiene immediately – Utilities and businesses should enforce strong authentication on industrial systems, audit firewall settings, and deploy network segmentation within 24 hours to mitigate OT threats highlighted by the TwoNet breach.
Check home emergency power and communications gear by tonight – Residents in California counties under Public Safety Power Shutoff alerts should charge batteries, test generators, and prepare backup water supplies.
Monitor port tariffs and plan purchases by next week – Consumers and small businesses expecting to import goods should order critical items before Oct 16 to avoid price increases when new tariffs take effect.
Secure property for tropical weather – Those in the Caribbean and Azores regions should tie down outdoor items, review evacuation routes, and stock flood‑preparedness kits before Tropical Storm Jerry’s possible upgrade.