Strategic Risk Synthesis - January 2026
The full January analysis, operational doctrine, and audio briefing are available to subscribers.
ANALYST NOTE
This month has been one of the most operationally dense periods I have analyzed in years. The key patterns that emerged are not just signals of future risk; they are evidence of a fundamental shift in the character of the domestic threat environment.
To make sense of it, I’ve structured my thinking around four key questions.
What defined this month?
January was defined by the convergence of three distinct, high-pressure systems that, instead of passing sequentially, merged into a single, compounding storm.
We witnessed a decisive foreign military intervention with the decapitation strike in Venezuela.
Simultaneously, we saw the steady, methodical escalation toward a potential major state-on-state conflict as U.S. and Iranian forces moved to advanced readiness postures.
Critically, these were not independent variables; the geopolitical tensions and foreign intervention created the political context that amplified the federal response and subsequent activist backlash in Minneapolis.
This external pressure was compounded by a severe domestic crisis where Winter Storm Fern’s multi-week power outages coincided with organized, violent anti-ICE unrest that required a military standby posture. This convergence is the new reality.
What changed?
The fundamental nature of risk shifted from discrete, containable threats to cascading, interconnected system failures.
We started the month focused on the kinetic effects of state action abroad…the strikes in Caracas.
We ended it focused on the fragility of our own baseline services at home, the power grid, civil order, and communications infrastructure, all degrading under simultaneous stress.
The primary threat vector is no longer an isolated incident but the chain reaction it triggers across our most critical systems.
What surprised you?
The speed and tactical sophistication of the domestic unrest in Minneapolis.
We have seen protests before, but this was different.
The escalation from demonstrations to organized, targeted harassment of federal personnel was rapid.
The use of roadblocks and caltrops to deny mobility and the successful attack and destruction of a soft target, the hotel housing federal agents, demonstrates a level of coordination and intent that exceeds previous norms for domestic activism.
What are civilians underestimating?
The fragility of the mundane.
People are still assuming that power, heat, communications, and emergency response are baseline guarantees. January proved they are not.
They are services delivered by complex, vulnerable systems that are now being stressed simultaneously by weather, civil disorder, and the threat of cyber-attack.
More importantly, civilians are underestimating the erosion of previously safe spaces. Churches, restaurants, community venues, and even public roads are no longer just settings for our lives; they are now primary friction points where these conflicts are playing out.
The assumption of sanctuary is a dangerous liability.
What follows is the full analysis, including system stress points, escalation pathways, and practical preparedness guidance on communications, utilities, mobility, and community security.
The full January analysis, operational doctrine, and audio briefing are available to subscribers.
