US contingency plan for Venezuela | Arctic blast threatens grid
Analyst Insight
The U.S. administration’s quiet drafting of contingency plans for regime change in Venezuela signals a potential shift in Washington’s posture toward the Maduro government and heightens the risk of U.S. military involvement.
Concurrently, a severe Arctic air mass is bringing temperatures as much as 20 °F below average across large swaths of the central and eastern United States and could strain energy supplies for weeks.
In Africa, the capture of Sudan’s strategic Heglig oilfield by the Rapid Support Forces and the M23 rebels’ advance along the Kiliba‑Uvira corridor in eastern Congo highlight how armed groups are exploiting political uncertainty and threatening critical infrastructure.
These developments indicate rising geopolitical volatility and potential supply chain disruptions that require close monitoring.
Domestic Security and Civil Unrest
No high-impact domestic security events met the selection criteria in this cycle.
Extreme Weather and Natural Hazards
Arctic cold wave threatens power grid and transport - The U.S. Weather Prediction Center reports an Arctic blast pulling air from Canada is driving temperatures up to 20 °F below average across the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, with the deep freeze expected to persist for weeks. NERC’s winter reliability assessment warns that rising electricity demand and an uneven resource mix leave large regions at elevated risk of energy shortfalls during prolonged cold snaps, raising the potential for grid strain, black ice, and supply disruptions.
International Flashpoints
U.S. contingency planning for Venezuelan regime change - Numerous outlets report that U.S. officials are quietly drafting day‑after plans in case Nicolás Maduro is ousted, including options ranging from negotiated departures to U.S. military strikes. The planning indicates consideration of direct action to force Maduro out, while internal disagreements show that no decision has been made; any movement toward execution would mark a significant escalation in U.S. intervention in Venezuela.
RSF seizure of Heglig oilfield - Reuters confirms Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces took control of the Heglig oilfield, which houses the main processing facility for South Sudanese oil and is vital for both countries’ revenue. Government forces and workers withdrew to avoid damaging infrastructure. The capture threatens regional energy supplies and demonstrates how combatants are targeting critical infrastructure.
M23 advance on Uvira axis in eastern DRC - The U.N. reports that 200,000 people fled their homes as Rwanda‑backed M23 rebels advanced toward the lakeside town of Uvira, with heavy fighting near Sange and Kiliba. Local officials said at least 74 people were killed and 83 wounded, and the fighting continued despite a U.S.‑brokered peace deal. The advance illustrates a pattern of escalation and raises the risk of further civilian displacement and regional instability.
Signals to Monitor
Official announcements or leaks indicating U.S. decisions on Venezuelan military options or airspace restrictions.
NERC or utility grid emergency alerts and reports of widespread power outages during the Arctic cold wave.
Movement of RSF units around oil infrastructure or attempts by Sudanese forces to retake Heglig.
Reports of M23 forces approaching Uvira or crossing into Burundi, and changes in Rwanda’s involvement.
Red Flags
U.S. military assets repositioned toward Venezuela or explicit authorization of strikes.
Grid emergency declarations, load‑shedding orders, or cascading power failures in cold‑affected states.
RSF sabotage or destruction of pipelines around Heglig, or retaliatory attacks on oil facilities.
Verified reports of massacres or use of heavy weaponry by M23 resulting in mass casualties along the Uvira corridor.
Preparedness Action Items
Households and businesses in the central and eastern U.S. should implement cold‑weather readiness plans, including insulating pipes, ensuring backup heat sources, and maintaining a supply of food and water.
Energy operators should review NERC’s cold‑weather protocols and complete winter readiness checklists to mitigate generator outages.
Organizations with personnel or operations in Venezuela should monitor U.S. policy announcements and prepare contingency plans for potential travel restrictions or escalated conflict.
Humanitarian teams and NGOs working in Sudan and eastern DRC should reassess security plans, monitor rebel movements, and coordinate with local partners for potential evacuations.
Preparedness Focus of the Day
Winter storm readiness: Check and maintain emergency heating equipment, ensure vehicles are winterized, and review communication plans for potential power outages.